Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 3.895563 4.241480 4.623522 5.080632 5.617970 6.236410 7.012375
2025-01-12 3.357876 3.793367 4.306278 4.967090 5.815069 6.896154 8.432669
2025-01-19 2.989378 3.452731 4.020446 4.787520 5.832244 7.266608 9.515358
2025-01-26 2.829092 3.333766 3.974988 4.881564 6.191575 8.135714 11.542093
2025-02-02 2.742076 3.291289 4.013168 5.079396 6.714664 9.351314 14.607993
2025-02-09 2.643885 3.220828 4.000431 5.195036 7.125180 10.485478 18.123676
2025-02-16 2.507156 3.085107 3.881018 5.132444 7.232063 11.106492 20.920719
2025-02-23 2.394697 2.973481 3.784361 5.090030 7.360324 11.797376 24.415032
2025-03-02 2.292801 2.869133 3.688675 5.036183 7.455791 12.445753 28.405245
2025-03-09 2.202579 2.775392 3.600887 4.984316 7.543976 13.104247 33.229497
2025-03-16 2.131831 2.705231 3.542944 4.974909 7.709876 14.000714 40.456257
2025-03-23 2.088125 2.671575 3.537737 5.053618 8.063250 15.510126 54.459282
2025-03-30 2.005576 2.577593 3.434368 4.953821 8.038467 16.011766 64.404252
2025-04-06 1.927327 2.486615 3.330739 4.845016 7.979840 16.409095 75.820986
2025-04-13 1.841548 2.380770 3.197881 4.672634 7.757757 16.234410 81.547398
2025-04-20 1.815550 2.364115 3.207366 4.762939 8.144236 18.227649 134.310781
2025-04-27 1.809994 2.377990 3.266849 4.952753 8.806033 21.696327 378.894768
2025-05-04 1.789549 2.367524 3.284776 5.063612 9.301300 25.004572 3355.204911
2025-05-11 1.740731 2.310374 3.220334 5.003617 9.337564 26.255221 NaN
2025-05-18 1.698134 2.261455 3.167515 4.962950 9.420957 27.862788 NaN
2025-05-25 1.656220 2.212101 3.111556 4.911309 9.466007 29.346620 NaN
2025-06-01 1.616932 2.165604 3.058430 4.861552 9.509533 30.919137 NaN
2025-06-08 1.586120 2.131669 3.025721 4.852526 9.673682 33.537075 NaN